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Predicting Food Trends Before They Happen

Best Practices for Bringing Food Innovation to Your Foodservice or CPG Company

In the food industry, everyone is looking for the next big idea. (Who doesn’t wish they came up with avocado toast?) In the past, making trend predictions might have felt like throwing spaghetti at a wall and seeing what stuck. Now, we can use data to anticipate upcoming trends, before they happen.

This comprehensive resource will explore all of our industry-proven best practices for bringing innovation to your foodservice or CPG company.

The Menu Adoption Cycle

When examining trends, it’s common to focus on what’s happening right now. This forces you to be reactive, instead of enabling you to proactively take advantage of future trends. Understanding the Menu Adoption Cycle provides a foundation for extrapolating and anticipating the future growth of specific trends.

How can the food industry predict trends?

Predicting food trends isn’t just about staying in the know about the latest dishes or flavors on social media, but rather about what food trends will shape the future in the restaurant industry and beyond – whether it’s plant-based or keto-friendly, or experimenting with the next big global flavors.

What’s the difference between fads and trends?

Having an understanding of what separates fads from trends, the history of specific trends, and the underlying needs driving those food trends is enormously helpful in predicting their future course.

Fads are typically media-driven, catalyzed by retail, experience hyper-growth, and have a limited true need. Trends are restaurant-driven, democratize-able, experience organic growth, and represent a greater underlying need.

Why is it called the Menu Adoption Cycle?

Because trends start at restaurants. At least 70% of U.S. consumers indicate that their food preferences are driven primarily by what they encounter on restaurant menus—more so than what they find on grocery store shelves or in a recipe book. Despite the fact that most meals are consumed at home, trends are generally catalyzed by consumers’ away-from-home experiences. Over the past decade, the MAC has enabled us to predict hundreds of food trends early in their life cycle.

Why is it called the Menu Adoption Cycle?

Because trends start at restaurants. At least 70% of U.S. consumers indicate that their food preferences are driven primarily by what they encounter on restaurant menus—more so than what they find on grocery store shelves or in a recipe book. Despite the fact that most meals are consumed at home, trends are generally catalyzed by consumers’ away-from-home experiences.

Over the past decade, the MAC has enabled us to predict hundreds of food trends early in their life cycle. Here are a few examples:

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Chef Casual Artisanal Toast Matcha Modern Vegetarian Poke Avocado Toast
Tzatziki Food Halls Panzanella Pulses Turmeric Gose Beer
Non-Alc.
Craft Beverages		 Nut Butters Piri Piri Aleppo Peppers Activated Charcoal Gochujang
Habanero Bao Buns Cold Brew Coffee Freekah Ghost Pepper Furikake

Inception

Trends start here. Inception-stage trends exemplify originality in flavor, preparation, and presentation. At this stage, they are difficult to find on many menus.

FOODSERVICE

Ethnic Independents & Fine Dining

RETAIL

Ethnic Markets & Ethnic Aisle

Adoption

Adoption-stage trends grow their base via lower price points and simpler prep methods. Still differentiated, these trends often feature premium and/or authentic ingredients.

FOODSERVICE

Gastropubs, Chef-Casual, Food Trucks, Upper Casual, & Casual Independents

RETAIL

Farmers Markets, Specialty Grocers, & Gourmet Food Stores

 

Proliferation

Proliferation-stage trends are adjusted for mainstream appeal. Often combined with popular applications (on a burger, pasta, etc.), these trends have become familiar to many.

FOODSERVICE

Lodging, Casual Chains, Colleges, Quick Service Restaurants, & Grocery Deli

RETAIL

Traditional Grocery, Mass Merch, & Club Stores

Ubiquity

Ubiquity-stage trends have reached maturity and can be found across all sectors of the food industry. Though often diluted by this point, their roots are still recognizable.

FOODSERVICE

Convenience Stores, Corporate Cafeteria, Family Restaurants, Healthcare, & K-12 Schools

RETAIL

Drug Stores & Dollar Stores

What is the science behind menu trends?

Applying the MAC is both a science and an art—that is, it requires a combination of reliable, objective data and an informed, human perspective. While formulas do play a crucial role in assigning each trend to its appropriate MAC stage, there’s no universal formula that does the job entirely; human intelligence is a critical part of the equation.

  • PENETRATION ANALYSIS: Statistical menu data provides the science; quantitative information about what restaurants offer on their menu is the foundation of the MAC. This starts with penetration analysis—the percentage of restaurants that offer a specific food, flavor, or ingredient—which is tabulated by key restaurant types that represent different stages of the cycle.
  • TREND GROWTH: Consider the four trends below, all of which have grown significantly on menus over the past four years. Each, however, is at a different stage of its life cycle.

Black garlic, although up dramatically, is still found predominantly in fine dining restaurants. It is a clear example of an inception trend. Kale, meanwhile, has trickled from Fine Dining to Fast Casual and progressive QSR chains. It easily transforms from comfort food to LSR chains’ proof of healthy menu options moving it from adoption to proliferation.

Mac & Cheese conjures up memories of childhood, and continues to grow on menus where it morphs from comfort food to upscale with creative inclusions. It is firmly established and familiar to consumers, a dish that is less risky but can be made unique.

4-yr Growth Fine Dining Casual Dining Midscale Fast Casual QSR
Black Garlic INCEPTION 121% 11% 2% 1% 1% 0%
Turmeric ADOPTION 195% 6% 5% 4% 8% 2%
Kale PROLIFERATION 56% 45% 25% 13% 34% 10%
Mac & Cheese UBIQUITY 13% 30% 38% 33% 22% 21%
A case study

Kale’s ascendancy began in 2009, kicking off at fine dining in the INCEPTION stage. Casual dining and Fast casual jumped in a few years later, and by 2013 all segments began to contribute to its rapid growth, pushing kale into the PROLIFERATION stage.

The LTO Factor

Limited time offers (LTOs) have the unique ability to inject growth through cyclical appearances on menus that in turn start impacting growth across the calendar.

Popular for its naturally healthy halo, kale’s rapid growth is in part due to its cyclical popularity as an LTO during January. Eventually, kale’s annual push began to bleed into other months, and by 2015, kale’s LTO usage peaked and has since become a mainstay on menus around the year.

What are common barriers to trend growth?

It’s critical to understand external influences that can either stop a trend in its tracks or supercharge it to the next stage.

Are there sourcing constraints?

While Venison and Yuzu are both increasing rapidly on menus, there simply may not be enough of either to go around if their popularity continues to grow.

Is there adequate supply to satisfy key players?

Later stages of the MAC rely on large chains to propel the trend forward. Is there enough potential supply to satisfy a McDonald’s or a Walmart? As operators like Chipotle move to GMO-free foods, will there be enough supply to satisfy its needs?

Can it be offered in an easily relatable format?

Certain trends, by virtue of what they are, will be inherently challenged to make it out of the inception stage. Bone Marrow is a great example; although up dramatically over the past few years in Fine Dining restaurants and Gastropubs, many consumers will dismiss it as being just “too weird.” Cannabis cuisine is limited to areas where marijuana is legalized, and only then to restaurants who comply with additional regulations. Mocktails, on the other hand, make another heavily-regulated item available to everyone.

What are common trend enablers?

On the flip side, there are also key trend enablers that can help accelerate a trend’s growth.

CAN IT FIND NEW LIFE LATE IN THE CYCLE?

Have you noticed America’s renewed love affair with bacon? Although already ubiquitous for decades, bacon somehow has become quite cool again. But take a look at what’s driving this—the trend-worthy part isn’t so much traditional applications such as bacon on a burger; it’s all of the new uses, such as bacon sundaes, bacon cookies, or bacon jam, as well as emerging ultra-premium cuts of bacon that go beyond standard grocery store fare. An old trend can be reinvigorated when applied in new ways.

IS IT VERSATILE ACROSS DAY PARTS & APPLICATIONS?

The explosion of Sriracha over the past decade was made possible by not only people’s love of its flavor but more specifically their love of its flavor on an astonishingly broad cross-section of foods.

Sriracha is right at home with everything from sandwiches to breakfast dishes, and it’s this versatility that has helped transform it from a niche condiment to one of the fastest-growing flavor profiles over the past 10 years.

Why are trends moving faster than ever?

Historically, trends took around 12 years to move through the Menu Adoption Cycle. In recent years, however, that horizon has compressed significantly—we believe the cycle time will be trimmed in half to 6 years.

More than ever, speed matters. Food companies used to be able to wait for trends to mature before making their move, but today that’s no longer a smart course of action. As trends continue to accelerate, speed has emerged as a potent competitive advantage.

Organizations that adopt trends earlier are far better able to capitalize, while those that wait too long risk not only having those trends pass them by, but also allowing their brands to be perceived as tired and old.

A few reasons why trends are moving faster than ever include:

Diversity Growth

The non-white population in the U.S. is projected to grow by 50 million by 2050, bringing with it a greater interest in foods and flavors that are reflective of diverse cultures.

Acculturation

As acculturation progresses, both minority and majority cultures explore and exchange various aspects of their cultures, especially foods and flavors.

Urbanization

More and more consumers are migrating to dense city centers where new food trends are typically adopted at a much faster rate.

Food Culture

The era of foodie-ism is now fully entrenched in consumers’ day-to-day lives, fueled by social media, food blogs and shows, and the elevation of food as a social driver. Additionally, food trends are directly related to lifestyle trends.

Mobile Technology

Instagram, Facebook, Pinterest, OpenTable and a continually growing list of mobile apps let consumers share food experiences faster than ever before.

How can AI elevate predictions?

We know that trends tend to follow predictable patterns, but the problem is most of the data is purely historical.

The issue

How has a trend fared in the last year? How about in the last 4? Can we guarantee that the growth over the last 4 years and in the most recent year is a predictor of performance for the next 4 years?

You can estimate where a trend will go based on where it has been, but predicting the movement of trends has never been qualified or validated—until AI.

The solution

Datassential uses AI to predict whether or not growth will continue.  For example, AI analysis using Datassential’s Haiku and MenuTrends data suggests continued growth of kale over the next 4 years in such a way that we may see kale’s move from PROLIFERATION into UBIQUITY by the mid-2020s.

Historical trend data provides the foundation for trend identification and strategy building. Predictive data provides the detail to anticipate a trend’s movement. Instead of waiting for a specific trend to make a jump into a new MAC stage, anticipate the move and be ready to act at the critical point of a trend’s evolution.

What data tools are necessary for applying the Menu Adoption Cycle?

Applying the Menu Adoption Cycle requires a well-calibrated analytic framework, starting with a high-quality restaurant menu database. Ensuring your data meets the following 5 criteria will improve the overall quality of your predictions.

15+ YEARS OF HISTORIC DATA

Trend prediction requires historic perspective and, in particular, the ability to track each trend’s prior movement on menus. Is It just a flash in the pan or a true trend? Historic data is essential to make that determination.

STABLE COMPOSITION

Restaurants should remain constant each period. Changing the composition of the database will cause unwanted shifts in the data that make it impossible to determine if the trend is actually up or down.

COMPLETE MENUS

Was the kid’s menu captured for each restaurant in the database? How about the separate bar or dessert menus? Proper penetration tracking requires a complete menu for every location.

ADEQUATE SIZE

For U.S. restaurants, you’ll need a data set of at least 4,000 distinct menus. If the database is properly balanced and maintained, this size produces reliable readability by segment and major census region.

Don’t miss out on the next big thing

Our clients were early to market with Gochujang, Salted Caramel, Turmeric, and Kale.

 

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